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The reason we all want better odds is really remarkably simple. If we have better odds, we get more money when we win. And that difference can be significant in many instances.
We have picked a random market from the day of writing to use as a typical example. This translates to This is, therefore, an additional winning of 0.
This is a really moderate example. All these are across very high-quality bookmakers on a popular market, meaning the margins are usually kept tight.
But even so, if you could manage to make that extra money in every winning, as a baseline example of what is possible, you can be talking about a lot of money over an extended period.
In addition, quality odds are the hallmark of a quality bookmaker. There are few better reflections of the likely standards of the site than this, as it is one which directly affects their bottom line, and indeed, yours.
Although they are to be respected for their efforts and ingenuity, they are as flawed as any attempt to predict the uncertain is always likely to be.
The first comes from data analysis. When we advise you to do your research, that is what this is all about, because that is exactly what the bookmakers are doing.
They use both expertise and complicated algorithms in order to try and give an accurate probability to possible outcomes. We talked before regarding how do odds work and how they are a way to understand implied probability, and this is a big part of where that comes from.
However, there are other things to take into account. Unlike you, the bookies also have cash projections and betting behaviour to consider.
In other words, they not only need to consider what they believe is the likelihood of events, but also how to make money should the market be heavily weighted one way.
Bookmakers want to avoid big losses when possible, and this can impact market fluctuations as well.
Speaking of market fluctuations, odds are also impacted by other bookmakers. They need to ensure they are competitive with them and are anchored to a range of implied probability by their competitors to an extent.
Margins, or the overround , is essentially how the bookmaker attempts to ensure that they can make money consistently considering all of these variables.
The way it works is simple. That number is the edge the bookmakers has on you and how they consistently make money and stay in business.
Some people view the overround as being proof of betting being unfair. While we will certainly concede that this represents an advantage that the operator has over the bettor, we disagree as long as the overround is reasonable.
The bottom line is that the operator, for all of their complexities, are essentially doing the same as you. Through all of the odds they put out there, they are making a prediction on what they think the outcome of a set of events will be.
And there is no magic formula to those predictions. They do not have a secret. They have research, and algorithms, but as we will discuss shortly when we talk about Kickform, you have all of those things at your disposal as well.
And on top of that, you do not have the same market anchors that they do. They are every bit of capable of getting things wrong as anyone else is , they just do everything they can within their power and expertise to make the smartest predictions possible.
Without the overround, we might have much fewer places to bet, and much fewer markets to bet on. With that said there is a limit to how much operators can get away with here and for it to still be considered fair.
There could generally be fluctuations in the market via competitors, betting activity significantly in one or several directions of a mixture of these factors.
They can also change due to promotions as we have discussed. If it is before a game, it could be due to player news like injuries or weather.
During the game , odds change rapidly as events on the field — or indeed, on whatever sporting surface is relevant — change the likelihood of events often incredibly quickly.
Being able to react rapidly is therefore a vital part of your success in this case — as well as to the quality of live betting and live streaming from your chosen bookmaker.
We concluded there that a large part of success is recognising when operators have made mistakes in their implied probability — in other words, where we think their predictions are wrong.
And this is absolutely true. An operator has a huge number of different things to consider when it comes to making their predictions, and that is what odds are.
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What betting odds merely do is present how likely the event is to happen. Bookies most frequently in the UK do this as a fraction, i. Again, let us talk you through them.
All will become clear. From this, you can calculate how likely a given event is to happen with a calculation. Betting odds allow you to calculate how much money you will win if you make a bet.
Quite simply, for every value of B that you bet, you will win A, plus the return of your stake. They are an alternative to seeing betting odds in the fraction format, and in our opinion, are easier to work out.